Apple, Microsoft or RIM: Who will win the smartphone race in 2011?

Good observation Erik, Android is a solid contender although I don't think we're looking at any "winner" in 2011.

Each platform has its merits with strong momentum on the Android side.

In the US, Apple is still held back due to their commitment to ATT Mobility although the smart money is on Verizon releasing an IPhone in 2011.

Microsoft has an intriguing offer with their new OS for mobile however it appears very consumer centric at this point which leads me to believe it will be of limited impact in the enterprise space.

Finally, despite their sluggish release speed RIM still has deep penetration in the Enterprise space. Look for 2011 to really define whether they can close the gap with Android and Apple or if they make a different play.

Should be interesting.

Here in the EMEA region the RIM, Apple and Android are all strong contenders with Microsoft being the weakest and Symbian having lost so much ground after their dominance in this market it will be hard for them to regain their position.

Although RIM is strong in the Enterprise market the reason they have done so well in the consumer market and managed to succeed in both markets is because their price plans, QWERTY keyboards and always on appealed to the texting and social networking market.
Whether they can maintain their current market share though is doubtful unless they completely overhaul their development environment.

Some interesting ones to watch will be the Samsung BADA platform and the Qualcomm BMP platform since they are highly attractive and powerful development languages and in Qualcomms case a very widespread platform in the lower end , mass market phones.

After all what defines a smart phone ?
- A multitasking device - The iPhone was only multitasking from the iPhone 4
- An always on data device - Since any phone with a decent SyncML gateway is able to push messages nearly all devices can 'push messages' therefore giving the user impression of 'always on'.
- An open development environment - The BADA and BMP platforms will change the game here.

To me the term 'Smartphone' is an out of date and too loosely defined term and no longer provides a classification of these devices.

Different players will 'win' in different areas ... you didn't really say what 'win' means for you.
Anyway, here's my humble take:
- Apple will continue to lead in premium segment of consumer market, while driving its back-door adoption into enterprise at the same time. While Apple is not on official road maps of many enterprises, real users are making companies switch to Apple anyway. I believe Apple will remain only profitable platform for independent developers
- Google will stand a huge battle for tablets, and I hope that android application market will start to consolidate
- Samsung will be a huge winner by its dual strategy of Bada and Android devices. The more I look at them the more I think that they are Nokia of today - great combination of hardware manufacturing capabilities with OS innovation
- RIM will continue its drop
- Nokia will continue to drop while slowly getting on track witth right devices (but only in high end segment)

Good points, Josh.

I don't think there will be a clear winner in 2011, although there might be a clear loser. There will be lots of competition this year in the mobile space, and it will interesting to see if Microsoft is able to make sufficient headway, or RIM is able to hold old during this period.

Verizon's impending release of an iPhone will likely be the single-most influential activity that takes place during the year, and we're all waiting to see what the impact will have, and for whom.

-ASB: http://about.me/Andrew.S.Baker

I am certain there will be a power struggle that will last well into the decade. I do not think a clear winner will emerge. RIM is great for enterprise applications, but gets trampled by Android when comparing features of personal consumers. Apple put the nail in their coffin when they locked themselves in with AT&T. As far as I am aware, AT&T has made no progress on upgrading their network to 4G. Unless their deal with Verizon is a MAJOR success, the iPhone is very likely to fail, assuming the other major carriers continue upgrading their 4G networks at their current pace. Currently, T-Mobile is the closest to the true 4G speed of 100 Mbit/s, measuring in at 8 Mbit/s; this is significantly closer than AT&T without such a network.

I believe that RIM has lost its innovation and doesn't have the sex appeal that Apple/Google have right now with consumers.

Microsoft will not make much headway in 2011 and will only keep offer a mobile solution so it can offer a full range of capabilities to their enterprise customers. Also, expect Microsoft to integrate mobility to their Cloud offerings, but even so they are far behind others in this space.

So the real question comes down to whether it will be Apple, Google or a new player out of left field. When you look at how fast Google/Android has grown, and how fast this market is moving it is not beyond anyone's imagination to believe that a new player could come to light during 2011.

If Apple makes the iPhone available through an additional carrier (as has been rumored for quite some time) then my money is on Apple. Double down on that if enterprises start to adopt iPhones (and iPads) quicker than they previously have as their is no indication that enterprise shops want to mess with Android phones right now.

please ignore the draft text the earlier post...maybe someone at focus can delete it (as wel at this first line of this entry)

Larry - I will answer you question but I would urge you to consider that the "smartphone" race is not a 2011 winner take all race.
And the notion of operating systems being the kind of critical element they were back in the 1980's, is well, 1980 thinking. For example supports Google supports cloud services across a number of different OS platforms on smartphones, including basic connections into a RIM BES.
On to your answers:
Android - Overall consumer share growth winner in 2011.
1. The Android OS is starting off with a small share, thus the %'s of growth numbers easily become large. That said, Andriod device activations are showing pretty nice numbers in the order of 300K/day.
2. Android devices have an interesting range of handsets from consumers to choose from across a number of carriers.
RIM – Overall Business Market Share- North America
I will believe RIM will still dominate the enterprise market and even stabilize share. The new devices that are in the queue will help, including the new playbook.
Lets not also forget large invested base in RIM BES servers that existing in the large companies.
iPhone will gain share in the business market, but remain in my opinion some 20 points behind RIM. The new management hooks that are the new releases of iOS will take some time to get built by 3rd parties, implemented and find their way into meaningful market share. Keep in mind 3rd party solutions also raise the total cost of ownership, not something CIOs are all that keen about.
Apple: Overall – Consumer Share – North America
Apple will defend and expand their share it with new devices and solutions.
In North America, and in 2011, the losers are Microsoft, Nokia and HP.

While much has certainly already been said, I want to moderately disagree with the assessment on Apple. While not at all suggesting to write them off, there are several factors that make me question Apple's long term leadership position. I count on them to reinvent the concept again and with that retain a leadership role, but I think Google and Android device manufacturers have caught on quickly in both the smartphone and tablet markets and looking at the Motorola Xoom w/ Honeycomb, several of HTC and Samsung's new smartphone devices, or Motorola's new 4GLTE enabled smart phone at CES I think those devices all offer a more compelling solution than Apple's iPhone/iPod/iPad going forward, particularly for business users who benefit from several user interface differences in terms of device productivity.

There are certainly still many questions and any player may make brilliant moves or fatal mistakes in this fickle market. At any rate it will be a fun battle to watch (popcorn anyone ?).

If I had to place a bet, I would put it on Android with Motorola and/or Samsung on the device manufacturer side. I think RIM can ride its enterprise market dominance for a while longer, but needs to innovate to avoid losing share and I think they get that, just not sure they have found the answer yet. Microsoft needs a small miracle to avoid dropping out of the race given what they are presenting to date.