Is this the beginning of the end of Black Friday in the US? How will this change SMB tech purchasing trends?

As I see it, as long as the economy continues to tank, or at least dawdle, retailers will take every length they can to sustain or increase sales. However, I agree with Mr. Burgundy in that Black Friday has indeed become a cultural event in this country as THE day to go shopping, and I don’t see this year being an exception. Some traditions persist even in times of crisis! While perhaps it’s possible, relative to years past, sales may be lower this Black Friday; I wouldn't expect an unprecedented dip either.

This being said, Chris is absolutely correct in pointing out that there are thousands of companies looking to upgrade their technology environments, despite economic pressures. Still, when it comes to Black Friday, it's not about buying a new phone system or accounting software solution for Grandma. It’s definitely a B2C ‘cultural event’ if there were such a thing; not a B2B one. For many businesses, technology (and any other large) investments seem to take the back burner around the holidays due to seasonality. Nonetheless, companies like CDW who specialize in many types of technology products might be able to reap the best of both the B2B and the B2C worlds, by offering promotional (seasonal) discounts to both consumers and businesses alike.

Our data has shown slight increases in technology purchasing rates throughout the year. It’s important to bear in mind that the complexity of the purchase and the type of technology play into the time it actually takes to make a decision. For instance, a new ERP system for an international franchise with 30,000 employees and 23 offices will naturally take far longer (having to account for many more requirements and people) than a single-location, 10 employee small business purchasing a new hosted phone system. But just how many people actually make it through the process? Our data yields an average of 15-30% of those surveyed within 3-12 weeks from their initial contact with us, who have purchased within that timeframe.
In our most recent study, we called buyers back for a second round of surveys approximately 3 months after the first, and found that over 40% of buyers had actually gone backwards in the process; either putting the project on hold, or dropping out altogether. The vast majority of these buyers cited ‘Budget’ or ‘Economy’ as the reason they’re stalling. Still, retailers can still hold the power here. With reasons like Budget or Economy (not approval from the boss, or relocation), the solution is simple: offer a lower price! And why not wrap it up in a holiday bow? It sells!

In many cases these buyers are just pushing pause for the holiday season and will reinitiate in Q1. Therefore, when it comes to promotions and discounts, now is the time when people will raise an eyebrow, even in the B2B market. Businesses will build on what they’ve established throughout the year hoping to finish strong in Q4. Couple this with recent media reports being cautiously optimistic of the ever-fluctuating economic climate, and I predict buyers will absolutely spend where they ordinarily would (within their means). But meanwhile, they will also be particularly hungry (and responsive) to deep discounts and promotions. Face it, we all perk up when we see a great value for something we want, and the holiday season is the perfect time for vendors to assist in justifying a sale by offering unprecedented end-of-year discounts.

Chris, Ron and Jessica: Thank you for thoughtful answers and sharing insights so freely. It was difficult to decide on a best answer.