Do you believe smartphones and tablets will eventually converge? Please explain why or why not?

There is the difference between what is possible and what is practical and usable. Right now, I can, in theory, read a book on a smartphone. I can also make a simple phone call on a tablet. Technology often allows us to do things in way we never thought possible.

However, sometimes these capabilities, while amazing, aren't practical. I don't read books on the smartphone because it's too small. I don't carry a table with me everywhere, because (regardless of how thin and/or lightweight it is) it's cumbersome to put in my pocket if I'm riding a bike or working in the garden.

While these two formats have already converged in overlapping functions, it is more of a issue of which devices, including ,as yet, unimplemented ones, are going to be commonly used for which tasks.

Just because you can build a microwave oven into a motorcycle, doesn't make it ultimately practical for a population to use. The issue is figuring out which tasks will people want to combine. This brings me to my last point. Convergence of technologies will probably be the customization of choosing which technologies and hardware are are going to be combined with which other technologies and hardware. The idea of a menu of choices for combining anything is what we are slowly moving towards.
Examples: "I'll take the red bike helmet with the GPS, heads-up display, the media player, and the blue padding."
"I'll take the refridgerator with the RFID inventory control and replacement feature, and water/ice in the door."

In the Android environment, these devices are pretty much converged already. I use 3 Android devices daily:

1. The LG Thrive smartphone running Froyo 2.2 with a 3.2" display
2. The Dell Streak smartphone running Froyo 2.2 with a 5" display
3. The Acer Iconia tablet running Honeycomb 3.1 with a 10.1" display

This 3-device array is like selecting from a fork or a knife or a spoon - your choice is purpose driven.

For a facile, one-handed experience and voice use, I like the LG Thrive. While I can use the larger Dell Streak for voice, it offers more robust viewing, but you will need both hands for a satisfying experience. I like to use the LG Thrive for voice while navigating the web on my Dell Streak when on the move.

The Acer Iconia offers the best viewing and offers I/O options like USB and HDMI. With the USB slot, I can use an air mouse/keyboard (Lenovo) or link the other Android and external storage devices. With HDMI out, I can stream media on large displays.

The apps are reasonably consistent across Froyo 2.2 and Honeycomb 3.1.

The notion of using a tablet as one's primary telephony device seems to be a corner case to me. They have already converged in the sense that the fundamental hardware, operating system, application development environment and user interface are essentially the same between the iPhone and the iPad. One can Skype on an iPad and from a videoconferencing perspective, it is a better user interface. It is quite possible, that one will be able to make a phone call off of an iPad through a telecom provider, but what drives convergence is adding value to end users by combining similar devices that are additive when in the same form factor. Being able to listen to music, look at my e-mail and answer a phone call simulatenously is synergistic. A tablet serves a different purpose. Reading a newspaper and watching a movie on the same device on which I may create and show content is better suited for a tablet. If anything, form factors will proliferate (there will be more wearable devices and embedded devices in appliances, for example).

If a tablet can be folded to fit in my pocket, then that would go a long way to converge with my smartphone. Size and form factor matter. I have read about emerging technology of flexible electronics, including displays.

Smartphones and tablets are converging, but that doesn't mean that eventually there will be a single converged device that replaces two different but related devices.

It helps to think about use cases, which makes it clear to me that different form factors are useful for different types of task.

For example it's easier to research flight options and make a flight reservation with a tablet than with a smartphone because of the screen size. However it's easier to get flight status updates and go through the flight check in process at the airport using a smartphone, because the tablet's size is too big to fit into my hand.

Bottom line, the underlying technology between smartphones and tablets is already converging, and the user experience/interface needs to be consistent, however the form factors will remain distinct to serve different user preferences and use cases.

It may appear that way (viz. convergence) to some extend. Just take a look at the Asus Padfone - http://event.asus.com/mobile/padfone/

Maybe the better question is what will be next? I just read of a tiny motor that measures a mere 1 nanometer across.

If we believe in the law of supply and demand, these two devices may merge, may be autonomous or may become something else.

Even in Star Trek, the communication devices were separate from the technology tablets. However, that could be because the writers were constrained by their own beliefs and knowledge.

In my opinion they already have converged. But perhaps it might be more correct to say that the network is what's converged and it's beginning to matter less and less what they actual device that's on the network is. It's the "Bring Your Own Device" world that's coming whether you want it or not.

For instance I have both and Iphone and and Ipad and can use either device pretty much interchangeably for voice communications. This month Mitel will be releasing a version of their Unified Communicator Advance product for both those platforms. It's already in general release for Android, Windows, and Symbian. Using a small SIP client (Bria) my UCA on my Ipad instantly gives me Presence status of all of my co-workers, dials them from a single click, all while staying on my corporate voice network. Everyone is a 4 digit dial no matter where I am.

I really like Dan's knife, fork, and spoon analogy. Which device I chose to use at a given time depends on what I'm eating so to speak. Sometimes the Ipad is the appropriate device for the situation, sometimes it's my Iphone. My point is that as far as I'm concerned it's already converged. I can use whatever device I chose whenever I chose to use it depending on the circumstances of the moment.

Great question, Nooman.

OK. But they will give birth to another device.

OK. But they will give birth to another device.

Any company that combined ipad or android with the tablet all with a reasonable all in one monthly fee would in my opinion take over the market.

I fully agree. Still something seems to be missing to really have a real multi-tasked and media dock.

The devices have converged. Functionality is essentially the same and can be the same with each device. What is left to the user is to choose the form factor. One form will be more conducive to some tasks--reading and email, document production--the other form is more conducive to scheduling and pocket convenience.

With Bluetooth ear bud and a male purse with a phone enable tablet in it, what can I not do with the tablet that I would want to do with a Smart Phone. If I am willing to go for some of the smart phone keyboard options and a nifty pare of glasses, I can up the functionality of the smart phone.

The functionality has converged; what is left is only to choose the form and the accessories.

Where both items are week, where they need to improve and where RIM is missing the boat is in the collaboration space. RIM, are you listening?

There's no question these two devices will cross over and then users will ultimately start to migrate towards one device. You're seeing this now with manufacturers such as Samsung. Do a search on the "Samsung Note". It has a 5.3 inch screen with a built in slot for a stylus, a powerful processor, increased RAM and storage.. And of course it's a pretty good phone.

I believe with the proliferation of all of these new mobile devices, 4G LTE and the requirement for business users and consumers to be able to connect from anywhere and anytime will push us to a more powerful handheld. The solution to making your mobile device a suitable primary computer for daily use is for manufacturers to create a monitor/keyboard shell where your phone can dock (similar to the Motorola Atrix).

Welcome to the next generation of computing.

The smartphone and tablet are with the same major user interface components and same functionality. The only difference is their relative sizes. There is 4.3" smartphones and there is a 5" tablet (Samsung Note). The sizes are getting closer and closer and the convergence is now.

They already have. Walked down the street last week with iPad under arm, headphone on and had international conversation via skype.

They already have. Walked down the street last week with iPad under arm, headphone on and had international conversation via skype.

Great comments -- I especially like Dan's knife, fork and spoon analogy. I think the fragmentation of the enterprise device market is accelerating so forget about convergence for awhile. Applications and business critical content will drive niche's for device types inside organizations, rather than the device type driving adoption. So maybe Adobe has it right with its "many screens" initiative where us content creators need tools that support "author once," deploy across many device types. Now if Apple would just relent and allow Flash on their mobile devices, life would be better.

It has already happened with the new cell phone called the Samsung Note.

Indeed multi-screen is important. So one can chose on which support one will work or communicate. This might lead to the rebirth of the "book", against the pad and pod: the iPhone is a pod, which phones. Indeed Samsung Note seems to solve many practical problems. One might always need a "book" to write, draw, make presentations, teach and explain. Real multi-function keyboard remains essential. Is the book the future of the pad and pod?

I don't think so...the reasons are because both will perform different functions abd perhaps compliment each other...the merging will happen between Tablets and Laptops....with foldable cordless key pads .....tablets will Flip stands will make Laptops obsolete !

Smartphones will become smarter and will speak to Tablets...to and fro...even remotely !

RK Menon,NPD Consultant

I admit you are right. I always dread the parafernalia one needs to transport in order to work & communicate properly. But you are probably right.
Multi-screen and "inter-speaking".
I would go for that I suppose.
Thanks for the discussion: now of course I am starting to wait for this device. Where will it come from? It might already be in the tube.
Let's vote and predict: Samsung or Apple?

They already have but there will always be a place for the small portable device that can fit in your pocket. I can see where the tablet when brought into the office plugs into or participates in a larger communication system.

Phones smaller; Tablets larger; in between devices for the clueless who can't decide..

Yeah, iGlasses would make the display on tiny devices more useful. Voice input and output like Star Trek Communicators (saw a wrist watch form factor phone at a boutique; right out of a Dick Tracy comic book). Wireless "smarts", like voice dial and GPS, in thinner and smaller phones is in the providers cloud but tablets want the brains and visual (and a heavy battery) locally; seems to be the major trend. If anything phones and tablets are diverging as the guy with the need for three different android devices emphasized.

Thinking "Johnny Mnemonic", Phones, Flash memory getting smaller and could be implants (don't you know people who have Bluetooth in their ear all day?). And the MIMO WiMax/HSPDA antennae will make us look like the "My Favorite Martian" guy.

A lot of these answers remind me of the opinions expressed when the first analog mobile phones emerged; too big, too expensive, too specific a market segment, wont catch on.

My opinion is that to ignore the merging and converging of these types of technologies is to play the proverbial ostrich and stick your head in the sand.

It will happen, whether we want it to or not.

Tablets and Smartphones are only nouns that apply to technologies of today. Yes there will be an eventual converging of these types of technologies, history should show you the milestones that make this question redundant.

Take a look at whatever device you are using right now to make a mobility phone call, put it in your hands and answer the following question:

Q. Does it have a camera, music player, calculator, calendar, diary, notes, games, web browser and capability to make a phone call?... ...see my point ;-)

Cheers,

Val

About 2 years ago I noticed the similarity between a tablet PC and a laptop's monitor. I said that the next big thing in this real would be the following:

A smartphone contains regular smartphone capabilities plus a very large hard drive. That phone can bl plugged into a tablet computer in a way that it becomes one with the tablet and serves as the tablet's hard drive. The tablet, in turn, can be simply docked in a way that it become part of a keyboard so that it functions as a monitor in a laptop computer-like setup.

In this way, this single device with multiple integrated components provides the portability of a phone, the convenience of a laptop, and the full functions of a laptop computer.

I had no idea until Earl Rudolfo posed above that we were so close now. It looks as if Asus has done everything except doc the tablet to a keyboard to function as a laptop monitor! But that's a very small step left for them to take.

Here's the link Earl posted. Watch the videos.

Asus Padfone - http://event.asus.com/mobile/padfone/

Awesome! Makes me wish I'd posted my prediction online somewhere rather than just mentioning it to my wife and professional friends.

jb

There is that Motorola Atrix 4G which plugs into the Motorola "Lapdock".

Stephen:

This is definitely a step in the right direction. Interesting that Motorola developed part of my idea and Asus the other. Convergence of these is what needs to happen next.

See post below. Would be interested in your thoughts.

And I'm thumb-upping you (as I did Earl and Ed) for getting us close. I think these examples of convergence are worth peoples' votes!

jb

Really, the only difference between them currently is the screen size so in terms of the technology they are almost the same. However, I agree with Jim that this will prevent them from converging.

I believe that it is the laptop and tablet that could very well converge because both are designed for typing, internet and other larger screen based activities and can perform fairly similar functions with the right apps. Many people are currently ditching laptops for the smaller, more light-weight tablets. I have an iPad case with a built in bluetooth keyboard which increases the functionality without adding much bulk. It may be the saving grace for the PC since tablets don't have great storage capacity and most with tablets will need a larger desktop with which to sync/manage their device and store additional files. In recent years, people seem to have been moving away from the home PC in favour of laptops but in future people may have a PC, tablet and smartphone. Certainly as we purchase more music, books, and movies on-line storage space will be required, unless it all becomes cloud-based.

What a great thread, with so many interesting opinions and perspectives on this question. Thank you all for participating.

Not sure what you mean by 'converge', but they already are the same, except for the size factor. If you mean will the smart phone get larger and the tablet smaller? No they will continue to be separate devices, they are sized for two different reasons.

Yes, I think they will eventually converge, with one caveat, size, size will always be an issue, you want something easy to carry but also full of functionality, and depending how this is dealt with I feel will decide if in future we only carry one multifunctional item.

I remember a few years ago when the iPad first hit, I went to a meeting and the host (Stefan Topfer, CEO of Winweb.com) used his iPad with skype on it to communicate with a member of his team to give answers to questions, in this instance his iPad was used as a computer and a phone to great effect.

YES, YES, YES, I've seen a prototype from a company I can't mention that has a smartphone size device with a paper thin large screen that slides out and unfolds to a 10.1 inch screen. So the screen size goes from about 4" to 10.1" with a slide out screen. Also there is a fold out flat keyboard with larger keys for heavy duty typing. Currently it weighs a bit more than a typical smartphone, but the case design is being worked on to reduce the weight to what a typical smartphone weighs today.
Cheers...until Q1 2013

They won't converge as in we'll wind up with a single form factor to the exclusion of all others. The handset form factor will certainly survive. But a number of people have pointed out the the future might be modular, with a larger screen perhaps as a peripheral to the handset rather than a fully-separate platform. I personally like that idea, as I'm always going to have my handset with me, but there are disadvantages here - there always are in mobility. I've been working in the field for 20 years, and my roots go back to the first laptop computer, the GRiD Systems Compass 1101. That was a compromise, as has been the case with every mobile product since.

I would suggest, though, that this argument needs to be based more around information than a specific device - it's all about the data. I personally believe that data and apps will live in the cloud in the future, and we'll use a smartcard (for authentication) plugged into a wide variety of form factors (small, large, touch-screen, keyboard, whatever) to access our information. We may just borrow someone else's device and the smartcard and a password will bring up our "desktop", if you will. Devices become less important in the future, not more. I personally can't wait!

They serve a different need so they will (should) remain distinct products.
While both address the need for mobility, the smart phone is (will be) primarily used with tasks that need quick response and delivers instant gratification. The tablet is primarily a computational device that is used for longer more detailed tasks.

Smartness is the incremental innovation applied to the handset phone architecture to deliver the smartphone. Extreme mobility is the incremental innovation applied to the laptop architecture to deliver the tablet.

That said, if tablets were to lose their computational prowess and become a 'dumbed down' laptop then that would correspond to a 'convergence' i.e converged to a gigantic smartphone with greater viewing capacity.... a niche market at best.

I have argued for several years that the opposite is going to happen - these devices will not only stay autonomous but spawn dozens if not hundreds of other purpose-built devices defined by usage. The debate between one-size-fits all versus pervasive computing has really taken flight after the Netbook craze became the tablet craze in 2009. Around that time I wrote this article "20 Computers you WILL own in 5 years":

http://www.thevarguy.com/2010/02/16/20-computers-you-will-own-in-the-next-5-y...

Yes they already have. I use the Dell Streak which is a tablet and smart phone. Some just call it a big flat sceen TV in your pocket but the only thing different is Microsoft has not created apps for it. My device currently uses the Android platform with Quick Office. But I can check company and personal email. I can read PDF files and do everything a smartphone can do. Everything is touch screen like a standard tablet and I also have it protected by using the otterbox defender. otterbox is great being in the IT field where I am setting up and moving large equipment or have my hands full and the phone pops off my belt clip.
The big question is will Microsoft ever support office suites on a small tablet screen? Or do we have to continue using documents to go or quick office?

I think the convergence is already happening and at a great rate. I have a copier / fax/ printer and an oven that is a grill and microwave and see this same type of convergence as on the horizon for my mobile devices. My TV, media centre and internet connection are linked to a wireless printer and all of my technology is linked, which has made a bunch of other gear obsolete: again convergence. My Leatherman is another converged device and again is a sign of the future. I have an MP3 player and an iPod, but have moved the functionality of these onto my other mobile devices (convergence) and no longer carry a digital camera or video camera because I use this functionality in my phones and tablets (more convergence). I no longer carry a calculator, watch, or diary as this functionality is all in my phones and tablets (even more convergence).

I have four mobile phones. One is a dual SIM phone and this is the sole reason why it has survived. I’m not sure why the phone and tablet manufacturers have not embraced this functionality and why the telcos are missing out on the opportunity it would give them. I also have a NetComm 3G WiFi hub that I carry everywhere for the flexibility it provides, in spite of the fact that I can use each of my mobile phones as a 3G modem.

Because of its big buttons and clear display, my HTC Win7 phone is the best when I’m trying to type one handed in a hurry or in bright light. The Samsung SII is best if I want to view Flash and the iPhone is my choice when I’m with people who are very Apple centric. Other than that, all of these three phones are pretty well interchangeable and none is really better than the other. That said, each of them is on a different network and my choice of which one to use is often driven by my preferred carrier in a particular environment. While I could swap SIMs this is not easy as some use micro-sims which makes this a pain.

Then there are my tablets. I have a Samsung Galaxy 7.0 and a Samsung Galaxy 10.1 and an iPad 2. The Galaxy 7.0 is my favourite every day device. It fits perfectly in my shirt pocket and is in between the bigger tablets and a mobile phone. I find it very handy. The Galaxy 10.1 is good if I want to use external storage to exchange data between either of my Galaxy tablets and my laptops without using wireless, or if I want to view Flash. I use Bluetooth and a headset so could use any of the devices other than the iPad as a phone and can do Skype of them all (convergence).

When I’m on planes, I tend to use one or other of the devices, although if I am creating rather than reading, I use one of the two Samsungs as they have a better mobile keyboard, but if I am just reading with little bits of data creation, any of the three tablets works. I did also have a book reader and a document reader, but no longer carry these as I have installed apps of the tablets which makes them no longer necessary (convergence).

I find the App store and the Android Marketplace to all have every app I’ve ever wanted and use the Android devices for trialling apps as they are free and once I identify the ones that are right for me, also download them onto my Apple devices. I’m still finding the range of apps for the HTC Win7 phone are a bit light, but they are growing daily and at this stage I have yet to encounter a show-stopper.

With al of this technology, I carry a man-bag containg my 3G WiFi hub, four phones and three tablets at all times. Surprisingly I still keep my two laptops nearby: one is an ultra-light and one is a beefy machine. Some may say I am an agnostic-techno geek, but I see it more as having a bunch of tools that each do a job, and see these as converging over time, and where they do, adopting the converged technology.

Only when the physical constraints of the smartphone allow it to present a fuller screen and keyboard (perhaps using projection) or the tablet can be folded to fit in the pocket.

One won't replace the other, if that's what you mean. The core technologies are already converging, though, so it's steadily getting easier to use one or the other, depending on what needs to be done.

The greater quesrtion might be whether technology will enable tablets to replace laptops. Their technologies are converging.

Maybe yes, maybe not!! It's not a big business for the companys, but I think in new possibilities more than a simple convergence!! I see a simple box, (like an Iphone) with a lot of functions of virtual interaction!!

The short answer is the answer Jim Watson gave.

A better question might be: When will the notebook computer go the way of the Dodo bird, and the Tablet become the mainstay?

The answer: not long... notebook sales are already declining...

Intersting question and an equal variety of intersting response. Believe the two have already converged even at price points! The lower end tablet range is available at a similar price range of a higher end smart phone! Even the usage, as earlier mentioned, is almost similar. Both serve the same purpose of logging on the net and staying connected.

If social media platforms can converge and make simultaneous update possible why not the hardware counterpart??..Smart-Tab-

If this happens, convenience to end user would be a plus whether the same can be said about complexity and enable support of technology platform would remain to be seen.

Great summary Lester.
hwever, we can expect more "smarts' to become available in the tablet, especially around enhanced security; therby availling greater functionality.

Not really. the limitations are not related to the technology, but the practicality of the form factor. A phone that fits in your pocket is limited by how useful the input device can be and how much you can see on the screen. A tablet, which won't fit in your pocket has more real estate and more options for input devices. For example, you might want to edit a document with a tablet, but it's not very practical with a smartphone. The crossover devices - the small tablets? I think they either have to find a niche or they will disappear.

david if you know anyone with a Dell Streak ask them if you can see it and place it in you shirt pocket. Unless you are wearing a kids shirt - it will fit right in. keep in mind that bending over the weight of the device will force it to drop out. I put mines in my pocket and on a belt clip.

There may be some convergence of the operating systems, but unless the human interface can be embedded into the human, and/or the LCD/LED screen is replaced by a foldable or projected one, be the smartphone's qwest to become smaller and simpler will be limited by screen and manual input device size.

Tablets and laptops might converge. Desktop type workstations will be around forever, though they might become peripherals to a more portable device. The advantage of a larger screen - making it possible to have more than one app to have an open visible window and windows with more visible detail without zooming or panning, will keep the three form factors distinct.

You all don't get it..the device is coming in Q1 2013, so stop the speculation. A prototype may be left "by accident" in a San Francisco bar next year.

I function on my back porch using a MacBook Pro, i-Phone2 and i-Pad2. I intend to consider the upcoming i-Phone and remain with the other two.
As I work on the MacBook Pro, I scan e-mails for culling and view video reviews and knowledge delivery on the i-Pad2 while I take a live phone call on i-Phone2 using the Jawbone's ERA headset.
If/when I have to pack and go, a go-bag of wires and other accessories is already a grab away and of course, the i-Phone2 and Jawbone ERA headset go with, to use St. Olaf College English. Whether I grab the MacBook Pro and/or i-Pad2 depends on the trip's function. If relocating for a time, it all goes. If a specific objective is the trip's purpose, I take the tool most suited.
Regardless of location, being selectively in touch with what must happen is always a simple movement to the left or right, including integrating with work output the background noise of Paul McCartey's aweful rendition of one of Buddy Holly's old hits.

The answer to this question depends to some extent on what you mean by "convergence." Both of the devices you mention are essentially high-capacity computer workstations with the ability to run application that interact with networks, both local and wide area. The differences are primarily in form factor and in what their developers have decided will sell in their target markets. The marketing aspect of this is particularly important in my view because the economics of both devices are tuned to the high-volume consumer marketplaces and will follow thsoe markets slavishly (or perish.) So the business user is left with the question: "what do I want to do for which one or both of these devices can be a solution?" The answer won't be as neat as it should be because the device manufacturers are off courting consumers, many of whom are young and far upstream from thinking about functionality if it doesn't sound like fun. Nevertheless, the devices are available and the business user must get his work done. Given that most smart phones and tablets can do many of the same things, one must conclude that from a business perspective, they have already converged and comprise merely different form factors of the same thing.

AMEN.