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Gartner Group says that cloud computing is the #1 tech trend of 2010- do you agree?
Gartner's research says that the #1 tech trend of 2010 has been cloud computing. Do you agree? Why or why not? Has has it managed to overtake virtualization and BI? Do you think virtualization and BI are still trending, or have they hit their peak?
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4 Answers
These are all big trends, but in my circles, cloud is definitely the biggest. When you simply look at the players driving it, and how others are being forced to follow, it's pretty hard to bet against this momentum. In terms of cloud communications, Google has really legitimized the cloud, although, it's not yet tilted the scales among enterprises. In time, it will, since they're already using it so heavily for other things.
However, Google has shown how the cloud - and really the PAAS - platform as a service - concept can be more efficient than software, and MSFT has simply had to follow suit. In telecom, Cisco is doing the same with its hosted UC platform and their partnerships with the likes of Verizon and BT. This is a powerful trend in that these carriers can now be truly global providers. There's nothing stopping BT from being your hosted UC provider in the U.S., and that opens up some interesting growth scenaros.
There may well be things of comparable magnitude happening in these other spaces, but for my money, these cloud trends are pretty big.
Nick,
I have to agree with Jon that Cloud is definitely the top trend of 2010, and will probably continue to be so into 2011. However, I don't think that virtualization or BI have peaked. For one thing, virtualization is still relevant (although not essential) in the cloud. It is certainly possible to combine both technologies.
Virtualization isn't going to disappear, but will become mainstream technology such that people won't even give it much thought, and it will be deployed regularly at all levels. In that sense, it can be seen as past its peak as a new and exciting trend. It still has a lot of legs in terms of adoption, though.
As for BI, we're only now starting to see its appeal to smaller businesses. It's still largely a big-boy technology, much as CRM and ERP were for large enterprises just a few years ago. BI will begin to hit its stride a bit more in the next 12-18 months, I expect, as it starts to appeal to a broader range of organizations, and the costs start to come down even more.
As a trend, Cloud is definitely on top. Data DeDuplication is coming on strong, BI is picking up steam, and Virtualization is becoming (or has become) mainstream.
-ASB: http://xeesm.com/AndrewBaker
The cloud is certainly one of the top trends of 2010 and I think it could continue to grow and may maintain that top trending position for 3-5 years. My concern is that cloud computing is so difficult for the end user/client to actually implement that stagnation could be a problem with the technology. Once the technology starts being more user friendly, I think we are looking at a data revolution the like of which we haven't seen previously.
The application of cloud computing and cloud services is going to completely revamp the data security industry and is going to open major new markets in information exchange. Eventually, it could even lead to total off board memory and computing except for a keyboard.
I think that virtualization and BI have yet to hit their peak and are still trending although it is possibly in its later phases. They may be mainstream in some places but Eastern Oregon is still an open market.
We attended Gartner’s recent webinar entitled “Emerging Technology Hype Cycle 2010: What’s Hot and What’s Not”, presented by Jackie Fenn. She went on to discuss some specialized Hype Cycles, one of which was the Cloud and Platforms Hype Cycle – including private cloud computing, cloud computing, cloud/web platforms, mobile application stores, activity streams and Internet micropayment systems.
If you look at the hype cycle, you can see that private cloud computing is making its way up the Technology Trigger, towards the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Fenn explained that certain industries (e.g. Governments) are realizing the benefits of cloud computing but are concerned about the level of security for their data – enter the private cloud.
She also made the very valid point that most of the technologies included in the Gartner Hype Cycles are not new – they are niche ideas that early-adopters have already been using, which are moving towards becoming mainstream technologies.
You can see from the hype cycle that cloud computing has crept past the Peak of Inflated Expectations and is making its way down the curve towards the Slope of Enlightenment – in other words, cloud computing is about to explode! Gartner have predicted that cloud computing will be mainstream within 2-5 years time.
I think that cloud computing is a low-risk high-benefit technology that is likely to become mainstream within the next 5 years. Cloud computing is well-positioned to become a high priority for organizations over the next few years as more and more people realize its benefit and low-risk. When you compare its position in last years Hype Cycle, you can see the graduation of cloud computing along the curve. You will also notice that some technologies such as private cloud computing were not even on Gartner’s radar last year, which shows just how quickly technology is adopted and how fast it matures, reinforcing the importance of early investment in such technology.
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