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How do you see the desktop vs laptop vs tablet vs mobile debate playing out?
So if desktops are the new laptops, which are the new tablets, which we can - obviously :) - expect to converge into mobile devices.... does this mean we'll all only have smartphones in 5-10 years?
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13 Answers
I'm unwilling to attempt a prediction in the 5-10 year range.
For the next 2 or so years, we'll see some shifting around of consumer tastes as it relates to desktops, laptops, and the various other mobile categories.
For many people, the desktop category will suffer the most. Any desktop that is fairly recent (1-2 years) will be capable of running whatever desktop OS is desired for a while, and older desktops will either be ignored or replaced by something else depending on the needs of that household.
Laptops serve a very specific and useful function, as they are the most powerful of the mobile devices and can facilitate data entry and content creation far better than other mobile formats. These will continue to be purchased by those who have a lot to develop or create.
Tablets will also gain ground, but as an additional device or at the expense of desktops, because they afford an awesome content consumption experience, and can even do some limited data entry in a pinch. We'll see more people who used to take laptops with them on vacation (as a contingency), now go for tablets as a much cooler and more portable option.
Tablets, for me at least, also represent the a better option for data consumption than a phone. I can see some higher-end phone purchases being delayed a little, to consider a tablet instead. The smartphone's advantage is that it is *always* available, and can serve as the content consumption (and sometimes content creation) device of last resort.
On a whole, more people will have more devices, and there will be some overlap, so there will not be a strict replacement strategy of one category of device for another. My household of 5 includes (not counting any work devices):
-- 2 tablets
-- 2 iPod Touch (which I would otherwise put in the smartphone category)
-- 4 laptops (including 1 netbook)
-- 2 smartphones
-- 2 desktops (1 of which is now hardly used)
Desktops will clearly suffer.
Laptops will hardly suffer.
Tablets and smartphones will co-exist and complement one another.
It should be expected that people will have multiple devices, and that some people will even have multiple devices in the same category across form factors (7" tablet, 10" tablet, laptop, etc)
Oh, and there will be multiple operating systems in use in just about every household. Even the most diehard OS zealot is going to have to accept co-existence.
The device makers and application developers will be pleased!
Over time, as the mobile devices become more and more powerful, and vendors like Microsoft and Apple get their OSes running fully across all (or most) form factors, expect more device convergence as Alan has suggested, where a base device has some peripherals for docking and expansion which allow it to be used in a different form factor for different reasons.
We're already seeing a bit of that today, but it will take a few years to mature.
-ASB: http://XeeMe.com/AndrewBaker
I agree Barbra, I think 'prefer' is an important word, and mandate is another - I can't see building facilitys, building security, operations centers, and nursing stations in hospitals working on a lap-top or other small device. Also in public areas where theft might be an issue, it makes sense to hide a small-form factor 'dumb' PC under a desk and KVM from there - a laptop at a greeting or information counter would get lost real fast. In other areas, small form factor makes sense. I can't see a campus cop walking around with a desk-top any time soon!! It's my view that PC's will be around for a long time even while more effective portable devices are available.
Not so sure about only phones. After all, there will remain non-mobile staff working from static location, whether a home office or from home. I don't know about you, while my iPhone is handy when I am on the go, when I am in the office, it is not my tool of first choice.
I have a sense that will continue to use all of the form factors that you mention for the next 10 years. The percentage mix will likely vary, but depending upon the specific application, the best tool for the job will be applied.
Well I think that something like a middle format will be needed. For me – as a developer I can’t possibly imagine to be programming on an iPad or on a tablet without a keyboard and I can’t imagine doing some other productive work like graphics or design.
Apple / MacOS slowly merges the usability concepts of the iPad into their ‘big’ MacOS X. Doing this is easier than going the other way round – adding all the noise from the ‘big’ MacOS X to the iOS.
A middle format is needed – enabling a mobile UI used in the iPad to be used when you travel with the possibility to switch to a Desktop/touch like system when you are at home. But you also can’t have two completely separate systems on one device – their UI/UX needs to overlap, or else it’ll be a mess.
It’s the work of us platform and UX developers / entrepreneurs to find the right mix I guess.
From the HW point of view – I believe – I really do, that the presentational / LCD & keyboard part of computers, be it mobile or desktop should be handled as separate things. You could for example have a small box (size of a business-card) that you put into a tablet or you put it into your home computer. This should be more than a disk and less than the complete computer. The tablet and the home desktop will only provide the LCD, keyboard and mouse.
At the end of the day you should be able to use the best peripherals with the best software & HW platform and you need to have a possibility to combine them.
You could even have a mobile phone kind of device that would have an interface to connect to your home LCD, keyboard and mouse - for productivity reasons. Having all your contacts & being able to call someone from this system would be great.
Why hasn't this been done before? HW parameters of mobile devices and the software you can run on them.
But hey, I'm a special case! doing art, design, software development and business at one screen.
Milan Kazarka
http://www.simplestrawberry.com
I think the answer is that in the future, we won't have ANY of the devices we have today. Instead devices are gong to fuse together, and we're going to have different points of access to our data.
CLOUD: Above and beyond the devices we use, everyone is moving towards unified data. One place where we can access the majority of our documents, photos, phone numbers, and data backups. And the place looks like the Cloud (but who knows what new name we'll use!).
CARRY ALONG: We will have a small device to carry with us. The form factor will vary based on our needs. Forget smart phone and think of smart "purse" or "backpack"... different sizes based on how much daily junk you want to carry: MP3, Camera, calculator, recorder, phone, camcorder, GPS, credit card, keys (metaphorical and physical), address book, portable computer, etc. The carry along is the new backpack.
WORKSTATION:The Carry Along will connect in some way to the WorkStation. It won't be a desktop, because they are nearly too cheap to sell. So we're adding bigger screens, 3D, touch screens, and terabytes of storage (but aren't you storing on the cloud?). When you need the big screen, big keyboard and big security (for corporate work).
MEDIA STATION: The Big TV is becoming the Big SmartTV, giving you yet another computer to manage. This is where you stream: Roku, Blueray, Digital cable, MP3's and other sound or video. This isn't just for home use, as corporation's struggle to keep up with consumer electronics, they will have smart conference rooms that should allow you to attend training, meet with clients on-line and do everything else that you can now do more easily at home.
Different people prefer different devices. While tablets and netbooks and phones may become more powerful, some people will still prefer their laptop or desktop for certain types of applications. I cannot imagine playing an MMO on an iPhone. I don't want to.
I agree - it's job/application dependent so I think they will always all be around - at least in my life of use. Some functions require an elegant device, some require a rugged one. Some require longer battery life, which requires a larger machine (today). Depending on the use, some need to be large so they don't walk off, some will need to be small so they can be used on the go. I suspect in the end, we'll end up with a small handheld that will dock into a desk/lap top for normal use, which can be removed for mobile use, and it will be our phone for 802.11 and cell service, as well as our PC.
I would agree that there will be considerable streamlining in platforms and data absorption and consumption aggregates; also the areas of overlap among platforms will increase but will not be co-extensive as ergonomics would dictate just how much overlap is functionally acceptable. For instance, as was pointed out, a graphics intensive utility would still require a large screen, and probably a well endowed desktop.
The wild card in these precarious prognostications is Near Field Comminications, as these will presumably become integral to commercial transactions processed via mobile devices (thus supplanting plastic), and the degree to which the emerging mobile platforms take advantage of the Cloud.
For us in the cyber security game, the emergence of NFC capable with Cloud access mobility devices on the horizon, while representing ultimate consumer convenience, will pose major challenges.
Dr. Lyngzeidetson for,
Cybersecuritygroup.com
There will always be a need for desktop/laptop devices for designers, very intensive data entry, etc etc. For the user on the go, the smart phone will be the ultimate answer.....but not until two problems are solved. One problem is battery life for which the simplest solution seems to me to be removable batteries, you carry spares when you are in the field. The other is voice management of the phone. As much as I love the iPhone, the only time I ever do any data entry is responding to a text message...and then my replies are always terse, probably with several errors!!! With voice capability, the extended battery life smartphone could become THE device for use "out there".
Bill Palmer
The large mainframe went the way of the small desktop size server.
The desktop size server went the way of the - Just as powerful Notebook/Laptop.
The workstation that used common peripherals went the way of the open peripheral systems.
The Notebook/Laptop is given way to the tablet.
From the beginning of the technology age, we have been trying to get the same amount of computing power in a smaller and more portable package. All the while keeping the visual side larger.
The tablet is simply a device that is very visually friendly, powerful, and portable. It is a workstation - laptop - notebook all combined.
I believe this subject would be great subject matter for a panel discussion.
There will be a greater need for accurate market info on usage matching desired profile.
Is expensive to touch and be seen on all devices.
In the 5-7 year range I predict the emergence of a new OS that will facilitate tablets as a more powerful and useful data entry and entertainment device. Windows 7 is currently in use by Acer in a tablet, but it is much too heavy an OS for the medium. Nevertheless, Star Trek-like tablet interface ad functionality is not far off.
Conversely, current tablet OS offerings, other than windows, amount only to very large phones that don't have the benefit of phone functionality, and at three times the price of a similarly outfitted phone upgrade. I just don't see that lasting long-term without a productive OS offering.
Laptops are here for a long while.
Do they still make desk tops??? :P
Together, let's put the fun back into work!
Belldon Colme
belldoncolme@gmail.com
What comes out in the future is either dictated by the producer or the user.
If things lean towards the producer then it's called creating opportunity,
if it leans toward the user then indeed customer is king.
Yet sometimes, many customers do not know what they want
until they are in a situation where they need to choose...
hence, it's still good to retain situational products.
Desktops specially for homes, schools and offices.
Laptops for people on the go and Smartphones to go along with it.
The rest are simply made out of creativity and/or profit
which is good in some way... specially for the mind.
Then again, life is simple... and that includes business.
It's people that complicates things, unfortunately corrupting society.
This is @TheGreatLight.
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