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How do you foresee your lifestyle changing when the era of cheap oil ends?
What lifestyle changes do you foresee having to make when the era of cheap oil comes to an end?
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7 Answers
I think the era of cheap oil has already ended; we are just in denial about that. But with growing demand in developing countries and stagnant production, I don't think prices will fall permanently outside of a severe and sustained recession. Russia in fact just warned that they are running out of easy oil, so I believe the long-term trend is ever higher prices, even if we do see some steep corrections in between.
And people are beginning to respond. Sales of hybrids, diesels, and high-mpg vehicles are all up. On the downside, people have less money to spend on other things and this will continue to slow the economy. In the long-term, I think we will evolve in the direction of Europe's response: Smaller vehicles, more public transportation, and shorter commutes.
The only silver lining to this is that when the era of cheap oil truly ends, the era of alternative energy sources will accelerate even more. Richard, I remember back in the 90s when gas was a little over a buck a gallon here, it was a buck a liter in Europe, which was more then what the US is paying in 2011. That said, "cheap" is a relative term, and I'm not really sure what dollar amount will make Americans realize the obsolecense of the internal combustion engine. I currently drive a Prius, and when gas prices go up, I'm constantly asked by SUV driving fellow commuters "So how good is the mileage on that thing?"
The era of cheap oil has already ended, the average cost of producing oil per barrel worldwide is around $75.00, so it can't go below that for long periods of time. Most of the easy to find oilfields have already been found and are rapidly aging, in the future we will increasingly have to depend on oil from more expensive sources like oil sands and deep water. As time goes on we will produce less from the cheaper to produce sources and transition into the more expensive oil production, this will increase the average cost of producing oil. To put even more pressure on the supply chain is demand coming from emerging economies. Unless consumption shrinks in the future or a bunch of new discoveries in sources that have easier access are found, then the trend of high oil prices will continue.
Here in the UK it's never been cheap and is just getting more and more expensive. We are very nearly at $8.50 a US gallon here, and so you should count yourselves lucky!
When? :)
Several people have already addressed the If/When part of the equation, and have made otherwise great points.
I'd also like to remind everyone that the use of petroleum and petroleum-based products is not nearly limited to fuel for vehicles, even though that is what the bulk of it goes to.
See: http://www.conocophillips.com/en/about/energy/pages/petroleumhouse.aspx
So, if we are planning to make lifestyle adjustments to compensate for rising petroleum prices, we need to look beyond just transportation, as there are other uses for petroleum that we can control.
Alternate sources of power should have been much further along in development (and therefore availability/value), but we tolerated the powerful influence of the petroleum energy company lobbies, and now we are where we are.
Are we really willing to significantly alter our way of life to manage, or will we slowly adapt to the new norms of petroleum pricing?
As it pertains to driving only, we're already looking at managing our consumption more intelligently by taking advantage of telecommuting more regularly. There is certainly a lot to think about. :)
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I'm not convinced that the era of "cheap" oil WILL end. Enough crude oil has been discovered in North America in just the past 10 years to power the United States for the next 100 years at current consumption rates. Geologists have been screaming about peak oil for the past 70 years and so far none of them have been right. In fact, previously closed wells are being reopenned and more oil extracted thanks to new technology. Lest we forget that the Earth needs two things to make oil: carbons (presumably from dead "stuff") and pressure. To my knowledge, the pressure is still there and things are still dying; so isn't it possible that the Earth is still continuing to produce oil?
I think oil prices will always keep going up for many years to come. We are so dependent on luxuries that unfortunately are related directly or indirectly to oil products.
My belief is that society will demand more and more of this natural resource that one day is going to be so scarce and expensive that we will have to adjust our way of living.
It is really difficult to accept that this will happen. However it is already happening.
Everyone has to play a part in the adjusting process, we have to make sure our vehicles give us always top performance, we have to reduce speed on our roads and perhaps the governments must introduce measures to convince more people to use public transport.
In the meantime let's take good care of the maintenance of our vehicles.
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