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If China becomes the world's largest economy by 2020, what will it take to be the largest again?
Many experts agree that if the current trend continues China, the second largest economy now will be the world's largest economy by 2020. What will it take for the U.S. to become the largest economy again?
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3 Answers
China's growth is amazing, but I'm not convinced they can keep it up for another 10 years.
If the US is able to deploy renewable energy solutions (solar and biofuels) that are cheaper energy than today's mix of coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear, that would have a massive positive economic impact.
If the US can find a way to make entry level vocational training and mid-career re-training relatively inexpensive, effective, and broadly available, I think that plus cheap energy would be more than enough to keep the US very competitive for a very long time.
I also doubt significantly that China's economy will outgrow the United States' in the next several decades. China's growth HAS been tremendous, but that doesn't mean it is likely to continue, but quite the contrary in fact. It's much more likely that growth will slow in so-called BRIC countries and shift more to the United States where labor costs are low due to high unemployment. I do not think, however, that green energy will have anything to do with the US recovery. The only link I see between the two is US policymakers finally giving up on renewable energies, realizing that we haven't hit peak oil, and coming up with the political will to tap the tremendous oil and natural gas reserves this country is sitting over.
There is considerable debate as to if Peak Oil is now, or 15 years from now, or 30 years from now. But no one on any position in the debate says that Peak Oil is 80 years away or 100 years away.
Energy is a tax on every single part of a modern economy. Producing a product ? Energy. Transporting a produced product ? Energy. Heating and Cooling buildings so that people can deliver services ? Energy. Doing anything with the Internet (now estimated at around 3-4% of the US Economy) ? Energy.
So anything that can reduce Energy unit costs has massive positive cascading effects throughout a modern economy. Renewable Energy has the potential to dramatically shift costs downwards from today's Coal, Oil, or Natural Gas. But there are many billions in R&D and many years required before these cost shifts will be possible.
That is why the US should be investing significant sums in renewable energy R&D now. China realizes this and is trying to leapfrog the Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas phase of economic development. China has been very aggressive in deploying renewable energy projects.
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