What role does the conflict in Libya play in the recent spike in the price of oil?

I covered this issue briefly in a recent Washington Post article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-gas-prices/2011/03/18.... In a nutshell, it isn't so much Libya, but the fear of unrest spreading that drove prices so high. However, there isn't a lot of excess oil production capacity in the world today, so even the small amount that Libya supplies to the world will have some impact when removed from the market. But crude oil prices have been driven higher than the supply disruption would warrant as a result of fear (and speculators feeding on that fear).