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What will be the next big consumer product to become obsolete?
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35 Answers
All of the answers already posted are good ones so I won't add my prognostications about what will be 'completely' obsolete.
What I do see coming however is a topping out of the currently frenzied market for high-end smart phones and PDA's. When you see a new iPhone come on the market and sell several million in the first week, you can bet that the appeal is more than a logical expansion of the market. It is instead most likely something akin to the CB craze of the early-mid 70s. I was part of that craze and watched as up to a million CB radios per week were being sold... to everyone at higher and higher prices. As the craze, begun with the novelty recording "Convoy" and the introduction of 40 channels, matured, buyers (like me I must admit) had to have the next big thing: PLL circuitry, crystal lattice filters, SWR meters, directional antennas and single sideband radios were just a few. Then there were the base sets (I had this fantastic Radio Shack base that could talk all over the world.) Some high end automobiles (Cadillac comes to mind) were even being sold with embedded CB transceivers.
So what happened? Well, the citizens band didn't go away; it just topped out so that the volume that made it so attractive to manufacturers dissipated, moving the industry and the market back to where it had started, truckers and enthusiasts. This happened well before digital and cell phone technology became available so it wasn't new technology that killed the mass market.
I believe that the smart phone and PDA market will undergo somewhat the same shakeout; not becoming obsolete but contracting to a more functional market driven by need rather than preference. That will put many of the industry's current players out of business.
Maybe not the "next", but ultimately destined to be replaced by smart phones - the point and shoot digital camera.
The land-line telephone is rapidly becoming obsolete. Google Voice, Skype, cellphones, Ooma, Magic Jack are just some of the reasons. The high monthly cost is another.
Possibly the calculator, they are built in to smartphones, tablets, why carry an extra device?
While some of these products have already been named (like "snapshot" digital cameras and calculators), I think this marks a larger trend of integration. I believe it will affect any "stand alone" device that exists today that has a single purpose. One by one, these are being integrated into other devices, which at its foundation is really being driven by Moore's Law. There are lots of examples. Take stand-alone GPS devices. I'd say that we are almost on the verge of any good smart phone being a viable alternative to a dedicated GPS (barring certain specialized applications like construction or surveying). Another is XM radio. It's very common today to find that feature built in to the standard car radio, as opposed to needing a separate box/controller. "Snapshot" cameras, as already mentioned, are essentially already at the point of being absorbed by current smart phones, which is why I think you see the big players in this space starting to promote interchangeable lenses and better optical zoom, essentially moving their product upstream towards "professional" cameras. And in my industry, stand-alone fax machines (while still being produced by the millions) are slowly being integrated into multi-function "all in one" machines.
What all of these examples and the others mentioned have in common is that it has simply become very inexpensive to add the functionality--a GPS or XM radio receiver that used to require a handful of parts is now a single chip--driven by Moore's Law. That's not to say that everything that can be is a candidate for integration (who really wants a TV in their microwave?) But look around at the long list of "purpose-built" devices, and one by one, they will likely be absorbed.
One other thought on this topic: As broadband, wired and wireless, continues to improve, in speed, availability, and footprint, we will see a trend towards "cloud-supported" devices (i.e. devices or really functions of devices that are not done entirely in the device itself; instead, the "heavy lifting" is done in the cloud). One such example is Amazon's new Kindle Fire. By moving some of the processing requirements to the cloud, they were able to lower the cost of the device and presumably give it more capability that it could have otherwise supported. And yes, I know that they have been getting some funny looks from the pundits for this approach, but I expect others to follow this model. This is actually what my company does for fax machines, all-in-ones, and document scanners--we let them do the basic job of paper input/output, while putting the intelligence in the cloud.
In my opinion cable television as we know it is soon going to be passe, lot of technologies are playing a role in this and internet and streaming form a backbone of it.
At a more holistic level I think convergence is being overplayed, imagine a situation, a tablet, being used as a computing,communication, imaging device, being sold at $ 500, when I could have the luxury of similar/enhanced feature devices being available cumulatively at similar price points.
Mrinal Singh
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The Wristwatch. Who uses one nowadays? Everyone uses their phone.
CD-Roms are going the way of the floppy.
Land line phones at home.
Cell / smart phones will be the next consumer product that will be obsolete.
Apple never produced any phones, but always computers. That the iPhone is a phone is a simple illusion. Adding phone capabilities to a computer, is about 5% of the real estate of the CPU board. The real smart thing was to call it a phone :)
Nokia, RIM and a few others are the last smart phone manufacturer. They may cease operations in the next 5 or so years. Pocket style computers will dominate the tech world and do more than adding phone or audio capacity.
There are only a few people who have the capacity to do that: Dell, Oracle (SUN's CPU production), Siemens, Samsung.... and of course Apple. Whoever wants to seriously compete with Apple needs to "think different" when it comes to "smart phones" - because there is no smart phone but smart computers that supports audio as a side effect and transport that audio over an IP network - you may still call it a phone.
Axel
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(my entire social presence)
It might be argued that the answering machine is already obsolete.
Next up, incandescent light bulbs.
High end pcs is my guess - simply because gaming is moving towards more specialized platforms that are quite powerful and have their own networks (Xbox, PS3, Wii etc) and for more casual gaming there are loads of smartphones and tablets (iPad anyone).
For regular office work, low end pcs will still exist, so maybe Bill Gates' prediction of a net computer (nc vs pc) will finally come true.
Computer work that still demands high end hardware like video editing, photo manipulation, 3D design and such is fast moving to the Mac platform, so the pc will lose there too.
On Robert's answer: the trouble is size, actually. Sensors in current smartphones are quite good, but too small to make nice pictures in other than the best circumstances. The bigger sensors in compacts need bigger lenses, which are not what the smartphone audience wants. Yes, some of the market will be gobbled up by smartphones, but definitely not everything.
Since you specifically said "big" consumer product I am going to be a bit bold and say the laptop computer (at least as we know it). Laptop sales have been on a steady decline as mobile devices and tablets increasingly dominate the market. As these devices become increasingly powerful and sophisticated--and as texting increasingly eats away at e-mail as a primary form of communication--there are fewer and fewer reasons to carry and use laptops.
There will always be some people and applications for which laptops are best-suited, but those numbers are already decreasing and the market reflects it. What remains of the traditional laptop market will likely, largely morph into more of a "dumb/client" machine scenario, thanks to the increasing availability and speed of wireless (including on airplanes) and cloud computing. There will be almost no reason for hard drives or any other form of storage, to the point where the only real value of a laptop is a full-sized, mechanical keyboard for typing-intensive work.
If you think this is an extreme and unrealistic prediction, remember that many companies suffered irreversibly when digital imaging came around. Even industry leaders and "experts" assumed it was years or decades away, and that the quality would never match silver-based film, but within less than 5 years the traditional photo market was already vanishing. The legendary Kodak (based a few miles down the road from me) is teetering on bankruptcy, in no small part due to its massive dependence on obsolete technology and its failure to change and keep up with evolution. The point being that there are a precedents for hard-to-believe predictions coming true, and quickly.
In this case I predict that within a similar 5-year window or less, the traditional laptop market will exist, but as a niche on the verge of market share irrelevance.
As someone whose business is very much tied to the laptop market, this affects me in a very real way, but we are already evolving and adapting to these changes as the trend has already begun and the handwriting is very much on the wall.
customer service as a part of the bundle is the next consumer product to become obsolete... consumers will cut service out of the deal unless it is service worth paying for.
The plastic credit card will disappear and your phone will pay for everything.
The lap top computer. They have always been too heavy and bulky and can mostly be replaced by a tablet. Also, I think hard disk drives (as everyone moves to the cloud) and as others have said the landline phone. Also, there needs to be integration of technology in our lounge rooms. There are too many options at the moment with DVD players, PVRs and then separate devices for movies (such as Apple TV) - it's too sloppy. I think large coffee machines in houses will also be a passing fad as people get fed up with cleaning and maintainng them.
I agree that the Hard Disc is going, going gone, alone with the Computer Room, Real Estate to service that Computer Room and the associated Staffing requirement of same = the recession we have to have, just around the corner awaiting us in "THE CLOUD".
I agree with Satrina:
The Lap Top computer
The landline phone (mine are all in the cupboard already)
The coffee maker, certainly! What a joke - use a plunger!
Also one that hasn't been mentioned -
The CD/DVD for entertainment (and probably for loading software as well). For 2 reasons:
1) so unreliable, reminds me of the cassette tape
2) no user control of videos - the movie studios have taken over control of the DVD format - user has to sit through all their garbage, can't fast forward etc the way you can watching the same movie on a media player from a thumb drive.
In the Developing world we are only just beginning to embrace some of the technologies you have already deemed obsolute. I do agree that the PC will become more and more irrelevant as hand held devices become more powerful.
As usage and data increase exponentially the wireless "Cloud" will hit the bandwidth wall unless the FCC changes its pro-carrier anti-consumer policies. This includes allowing carriers to subsidize wireless and internet services robbing user of "obsolete" services like land lines, frame relay, dark fiber, etc. The Internet "Cloud" has already experienced bandwidth reduction during peak usage events (like the Super Bowl toilet flush issue)(or trying to call at New Year midnight). Of course the failure of our government to provide public Internet access to its citizens is overshadowed by an electrical grid that is rusting to pieces (no power, no cloud) and exploding gas pipelines. Thank God these energy and communications companies are privatized. (Of course some problems like Cell Tower density are NIMBYs in wealthier neighborhoods; its OK to run a power line through a ghetto. ) These are Political problems whose resolution is in favor of those with cash to bribe our politicians. Of course since the Tea Party, lobbying (bribing) politicians has reached new levels. Graft will never be obsolete in our present system.
The # 2 pencil! Starting this fall, the Indiana Department of Education will no longer require Indiana's public schools to teach cursive writing. I thought this gave way to “keyboarding” until twitter came along. I think my wife is now a co-twitterer and we are now twitterpated with abbreviations we simply don’t understand.
So, I think the absence of writing and sentence structure in favor of 140 byte bursts will obviate the pencil.
How about big box stores. The internet has transformed the way consumers shop, and with the adoption of smartphones this is only going to continue.
Internet shopping delivers value on many fronts: convenience, product ratings, free shipping directly to my home, hassle free returns, live support, and the added bonus of recommended products based on my previous purchased. Wow -- internet shopping has come a long way in 5 years!
We will have no need for big box stores in a decade.
Watches - no one needs them anymore with phones and other devices providing this. I would also suggest paper calendars...
battery chargers for phones, tools, etc.
In short, anything cabled. We are heading into a completely wireless future. I also believe that, just as today we have wireless devices that require a cable to charge them, in the future there will be no need for even these...kind of like Power-Over-Ethernet that we have now, but without the cable medium. It's only logical.
Televisions as we've known them for 50+ years. One-way mass broadcast mediums with a complexity of peripherals (remotes, cable boxes, etc.).
They will become these intelligent devices that give us what they know we'll like. Their primary purpose will still be about entertaining us but they'll be personalized with endless content from the net. They'll be simplified, likely pushed forward by whatever design treatment Apple gives its new TV.
Not sure if this qualifies, as they are most likely already obsolete, but watches of any variety are on the hit list. We all carry electronics that know the time - why wear one?
This may be off topic, but I thought the PC was supposed to replace the FAX machine. Wish it would hurry up, so everyone can reduce their carbon footprint a little more and become more green then using paper that goes straight from fax to trash. :) I would at least expect our Government and Schools to be smart enough to know digital fax is more secure, cheaper and greener. :/
@Don. I haven't faxed a document in 7 years. I use the PC for everything...efax, scan and email, etc.
While it will take some time I am guessing that it will be two products for the West and one for much of the world.
The smartphone and the laptop...
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The "pads" are co-opting both platforms to one degree or another but these are still in their early iterations. As soon as one of the major vendors bridges the gap between the real business computing power to replace the laptop and manages to integrate far more phone and calling features the "pads" (iPad, Android, etc.) will begin to make the smartphone and the laptop obsolete.
This will not happen overnight. Even if that blockbuster product were available today, it would still likley take a few years. But that day I believe is coming.
I hope the smartphones will be obsolete soon. Giving your attention to people around you in stead of people not present would almost lead to human behavior.
It seems with live chat, texting, email,teleconferencing,webcam,Webinars, online banking and the like the personal touch is becoming obsolete. Hardly anyone wants to talk with you on the phone or meet with you in person.Your clients want to email or text, your companies want to meet via webinar and teleconferencing and your family and friends want to chat online via messenger or facebook.
My response to all the responses so far, is I agree with all, so just look up to the "cloud". All you will need is an access point, and today it will be a "tablet type device" tomorrow who knows, maybe a cranial implant? Just watch your latest syfi show for your next answer, and you will find it. As we know now, technology expands expodenially, and it has. So find something that meets your needs, and enjoy it, for something new is right around the corner.
I think you missed my logic re Facebook. I feel like I'm explaining a joke.
MySpace was purchased for 580 million, valued at 12 Billion in 2007 (higher web rank than Google), sold (ditched) for 35 million in 2011. Facebook eclipsed MySpace in 2008. (LinkedIn has a business networking model that doesn't involve sex or stalking you ex. Social sites are not identical but stock analysts won't consider that.)
Several dissapointing IPOs in this depression, but social site Linked in was relatively successful at $9 billion. Zuckerberg "invented" Facebook after Friendster and MySpace. Facebook has 1/4 of the CTR (click thru rate) of MySpace, and one-fifth the number of clicks compared to those on the Web as a whole; and most of its demographic is outside the desired 25-49 year olds. Although Facebook has adequate income to continue operations, there is a strong capitalist incentive for the owners to cash in (before its too late). (And note that Facebook's growth is slowing even before the "cool has run out".)
If the high expectations for a Facebook IPO are not met (currently valued at $ ~45 billion), the 850 million users be damned, Facebook's business model will be a failure with the ensuing consequences.
You are correct that it will still be "popular" for a few years after that. However as a failed business model, like MySpace, it too will fade away.
The contest will be between Google Plus and Microsoft Live.
And, bless Steve Jobs, iLife.
Employers. This is difficult to understand in the current economic climate, but there is a critical shortage of skilled workers. When the economy improves, this will become more apparent. You'll see more entrepreneurs, more home-based businesses, and more hobbies that become businesses.
People are fed up with big business, and big executives with big paychecks. Who'd want to help them get bigger by working for them?:
WRIST WATCH,
I rearly use from last 3-4 years, Smart Phone has got everything.
Facebook.
After the successful LinkedIn IPO, Facebook will fall flat on overblown expectations.
Like MySpace.
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