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When will unemployment rates drop?
I keep hearing how the economy is recovering, but unemployment is still so high! When do you think that unemployment rates will drop, and what will be the cause?
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2 Answers
Gail,
The "official" unemployment rate stands around 9.6%. The real ''untold" story is that unemployment is around 14%.
We as a nation, have some huge obstacles to overcome before we see employment improve. We need to create or rehire approximately 200,000 jobs a month to make a dent.
Remember that we hear about a recovery primarily from the government. They will always place the best possible spin on any situation and that's what they are doing here.
What will be the trigger or cause. First is the government setting clear goals and not act like a bunch of chickens running around with their heads cut off.
Second, will be consumer spending, but this will remain anemic.
Third, would be a concerted effort to fast track new technologies and industries where we have an international competitive advantage and where those jobs can't be shipped off shore.
Unfortunately, I don't see a significant drop in unemployment much before the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2011 as none of the above are close to being quick fixes.
CEO magazine asked that question in this months issue. They also asked the question, is 10% unemployment the new normal? I don't think we can resonably assume that high unemployment goes away anytime in the next 4-5 years. (2015 anyone?)
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