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Which countries will become the next BRIC type economies?
Brazil, Russia, India, and China receive a lot of attention because of their current growth rates and future prospects for growth. Which countries, excluding these 4, stand the best chance of displaying BRIC-like growth characteristics in the future?
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5 Answers
My bet is on the United States. While we've seen a decrease in domestic manufacturing and a wave of outsourcing over the past 20-30 years, we expect this is now coming to a close. Companies are beginning to notice problems with manufacturing abroad, and are trying to bring production back to the US. Additionally, the BRIC companies are starting to see tremendous growth in their own middle classes. The result will be that most of what is produced there will be consumed there, so growth will be more limited.
Other than BRIC, it's easy to pick any one of the G-20 major economies, with Argentina probably leading the way. But outside the G-20, I'd put my money on Nigeria, it's an emerging mixed market and the government is making a conscious effort to improve the infrastructure (education, health, social services). Combine an improving infrastructure along with a raw work force, relatively low external debt and I believe that you'll have a new member of the G-20 or 21*.
If we look at the current BRIC economies they all appear to have a fast growing middle class, liberalized economies, and also becoming economic powerhouse in their regions and yes, by many measures they are all developing countries (except Russia, may be) with plenty of room to grow. The next BRIC member could be another developing country with relatively good infrastructure, educated workforce and politically stable. I agree with Manning Argentina stands the best chance to join the BRICs.
This is an interesting question and obviously Russia, China, India and Argentina stand out!
There are also some interesting stats emerging about Vietnam - had the highest increase in digital expenditure growth in 2010, high rates of growth and a rise in the middle class - aligned with education, use of English and becoming a area in outsourcing! Definitely a country to keep an eye on. Others would have to be in Africa and emerging economies (non drug related) in South America.
Don't see the US in this bracket, sorry Dock David Treece, rising illiteracy, rapid growth in an underclass, lack of education and infrastructure is not helping the US in any way!
For the APAC region, I would keep an eye on Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia. It's where rapid development is happening and where governments are also opening up their policies. Qatar in the Middle East has potential, so does Paraguay and Argentina in South America.
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