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Why does core inflation exclude food and energy prices?

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Dock David Treece
Investment Advisor, Market Strategist, Treece Investment Advisory Corp
Posted on May 17, 2011

It's called core because it's more stable, not because the prices it tracks are for goods more essential to everyday life. When it comes to inflation, the government loves keeping numbers steady, and it loves having numbers that are easily manipulated. This is precisely why the Fed quit reporting M3, which is a far more accurate measure of inflation (def: growth in the money supply).

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Dave Roberts
Dave Roberts Replied on May 17, 2011

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

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Nicholas Grimaldi
General Manger, News paper publishing and direct mail
Posted on May 13, 2011
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Core inflation is measured using the CPI (consumer product index) and removes items that fluctuate violently or frequently such as oil and food. Not including energy and food in the core inflation calculation gives a more stable percent as a base.

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Although, I differ that inflation excludes food, energy at al, there are some fundamental conceptual issues discussed in link below:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/05/part2/Wynne.pdf

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Stafford Williamson
President, DaoChi Energy of Arizona (div. of Williamson Information Technologies Corp.)
Posted on May 15, 2011
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The article Jeeva Rangaraju points to by Mark Wayne is excellent. Indeed food and energy are excluded from the American "core inflation" calculation, in part at least, because they are so inextricably tied to each other. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been considerably manipulated by the parties in power at the time over the last 50 years for largely political reasons: to make their party look "good" (better than the "other guys") and thus to give them an advantage in any upcoming elections (including in some cases establishing early in their incumbency that they had defeated the inflation that plagued the prior administration).

In fact, the exclusion of food and energy began with the volatility of the 1970's. This volatility was introduced largely by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (better known as OPEC) placing an embargo on petroleum exports to the United States in an attempt to pressure the US into withdrawing support from the state of Israel (at the time of the Yom Kippur War). The resulting line up of motorists at filling stations was considered a great hardship by most consumers, especially because the relatively sudden rise in oil prices (despite anti-price gouging regulations) also affected the costs for food manufacturers, retailers and farmers. When the Iran hostage crisis again brought on an oil shortage in 1979, it triggered subsequent "fiddling" with the market basket of goods further by substituting "popular" alternative "choices" like chicken replacing beef for part of the protein portion of food. Such "choices" actually tended to be because family budgets were so squeezed by the inflation that items that had previously been affordable staples had become luxury items relative to middle class income levels. Eventually, the "real" inflation was essentially ignored with public attention being re-focused on the "core inflation" rate which excluded food and energy altogether.

Another distortion of "core inflation" is the fact that it only considers "rental" housing, not fluctuations in owner occupied housing. Nor does it (to the best of my knowledge) reflect indirect taxes (for instance; property taxes do get incorporated in rental rates but not owner occupied) or income taxes, which under the Eisenhower administration were as high as 90% in uppermost brackets, but have declined to less than half that now. Failure to include these various factors distorts any true measure of average "disposable income" for discretionary spending.

At least a couple of economists I have spoken with tend to think that the Producer Price Index (PPI) is a more accurate gauge of real inflation. On the other hand "real inflation" is an imaginary number (sorry, math joke there). Actual inflation is incorporated into the economic system known as "capitalism" as one of the ways in which "capital" is created. In a capitalist system, inflation is strutural.

Statistics, especially official government statistics, like any "history" is just the lies told by the people who won the wars, and their descendants, regardless of the outcome of the actual battles.

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Rick Kadet
Vice President, Senior CFO Consultant, The Brenner Group, Inc.
Posted on May 16, 2011
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It makes sense to measure inflation in multiple ways to see its impact on our overall economy. One way that it is common to measure inflation is to see how it affects the goods and services we buy without the impact of volatile food and energy prices that fluctuate based on availability and time of year. There is no perfect way to view inflation, and in fact that actual impact on any person or family may be much different. However the government and Federal Reserve set their policies based on analysis of broad indicators. The Fed may not change its monitary policy based on food and energy inflation, but if manufactured and imported good prices rise too quickly, it may increase interest rates to dampen inflationary demand. These kinds of price raises tend to be more permanent and therefore of more long term concern.

Inflation on an individual level can be influenced by our choices. Higher prices can be offset by substitution, conservation or abstenence. We practice all three of these when we pass up apples for bananas in the supermarket, deciding to carpool to work to save gas or do without the weekly movie when the price goes up.

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Dave Roberts
Vice President, Strategy, ServiceMesh, Inc.
Posted on May 16, 2011
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A cynic would say that core inflation excludes food and energy so that the government can avoid increasing entitlement payments that are indexed to inflation. Simply, if gas prices go up, they don't want to have to pay more in Social Security benefits. By excluding some of the main commodities purchased by most of the public, it also makes it easier to hide the effects of deliberate government inflation such as the Fed's QE2 program (so-called "printing of money").

I'll leave it to the audience to determine whether I'm a cynic or not.

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Stafford Williamson
Stafford Williamson Replied on June 12, 2011

Dave,
You have a point there, the manipulations of the goods in the "market basket" that make up the CPI were, in fact, partly motivated by a budget balancing act ("act" meaning performance, not an "act of congress") that included avoiding "unnecessary" inflation of entitlement payments. The same thing happened in Canada at about the same time(s).

I rather doubt that QE2 was large enough to cause any noticeable domestic inflation except to the extent that it slightly devalued US dollars in hopes of stimulating exports by making the US dollar more attractive in exchange rates. When a country is looking at buying a hundred million tons of grain, In those kinds of volumes a few pennies make a difference, especially because increasing exports is the one place that the government does have some control over creating jobs without just "spending" tax dollars on a stimulus program.

Exports are key to expanding the economy, and while the government is making "moves" on several fronts to make that happen, they have made relatively little headway that I can see so far. Success in improving exports, however, will be key to our economic recovery.

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Dave Roberts
Dave Roberts Replied on June 13, 2011

QE2 was *MASSIVE*. It expanded the monetary base something like 70x. The reason we haven't felt it yet is that we were suffering deflation at the same time. Falling demand has kept prices low even as the monetary base expanded. Further, banks have held onto cash to bolster reserves which otherwise were crushed with falling asset prices. Thus, the fractional reserve system has not yet expanded that 70x monetary base dramatically as it would if credit was "normal." So, you're correct that QE2 has not led to massive inflation. The keyword is "yet." Once the economy starts to come back, demand picks up, and banks start to lend again, a 70x monetary base could end up killing us if the Fed can't suck it out of the system fast enough. Unfortunately, Fed policy is always a backward-looking endeavor. You never really know how much inflation has occurred (ignoring even the manipulation of the indexes) until months down the road, after multiple revisions. That gap, coupled with the natural "settling time" of the economy after any Fed action, scares the crap out of me. If inflation takes off, it could well get dramatically out of hand before the Fed even realizes what's happen. At that point, you could see 15% interest rates to try to bring it back under control.

File all this under the heading that market manipulation is hard to get right. Governments can definitely manipulate markets, but rarely with the subtlety and deft that is required to achieve the ends they really want without much collateral damage in the process. In other words, we aren't as smart and we don't have as much control as we think we do. Right now, the Fed is playing with fire.

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Stafford Williamson
Stafford Williamson Replied on June 16, 2011

Dave, I have no idea what you mean by "monetary base" but the M2, known as the "money supply" in common parlance grew from 7.0 Trillion in Dec. of 2006 to 8.9 trillion last month. How approximately 1.9 trillion is 70x increase is beyond my poor mathematical skills. However, QE2 did, according to some sources increase the amount of debt held directly by the Federal Reserve Bank from some 800 million to 2.9 trillion at the high point, according to one report I read.
We do not, as Republican politicians would have us believe (translation, distracted by a hugely theoretical set of numbers) a National Debt crisis, nor do we have a budget deficit "crisis" either.
We have an exports and jobs crisis, and by expanding the one we have an economic expansion that cures the second. An "Infrastructure Bank" is a marvelous idea suggested by Fareed Zakaria, but I contend that an Export Development Bank should be created with a special "class" of loans and interest specifically to create demand for exports of our "green" technologies. This kind of integrated action provides solutions to jobs, climate change and raises tax revenues even if none of the politicians have the courage to raise tax rates to the shocking and "horrendous" levels they were when Ronald Reagan was President (which is the blantantly obvious solution to the nonsensical debt/deficit problem, too).

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Dave Roberts
Dave Roberts Replied on June 16, 2011

The monetary base is the amount of money created directly by the Fed, before the fractional reserve banking system expands the money supply to the final size of M2 or M3. The monetary base is sometimes called M0. You are correct that M2 did not increase by 70x. Under normal circumstances, M0 would be multiplied by the money multiplier ( 1 / reserve ratio) to reach M2. But that is predicated on banks lending to the fullest extent possible, restrained only by their reserve requirements. In the recent financial crisis, banks stopped lending. As a result, M2 shrank. This is deflation. In order to provide more liquidity, the Fed embarked on QE2 to expand M0, in order to try to increase M2 even though bank lending was down (to counteract deflation). This has been partially successful. The problem is, once things start to return to normal and banks start lending to the fullest extent possible, M0 is now 70x larger, and the money multiplier will then increase M2 by 70x unless the Fed is successful in shrinking M0 quickly. The trick is that this must be accomplished in a balanced fashion. If M0 shrinks too quickly, then you end up with deflation. If it doesn't shrink quickly enough, then you end up with (possibly hyper-) inflation.

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